Wicked: For Good Projected to Shatter Thanksgiving Box Office Record with $120M Opening

Universal’s Mega-Musical Sequel on Track for Historic Debut

Universal Pictures’ highly anticipated sequel, Wicked: For Good, is poised to make cinematic history, according to robust prerelease tracking. Industry reports indicate the second installment of the two-part musical adaptation is tracking for a massive five-day opening weekend in the $115 million to $120 million range over the crucial Thanksgiving holiday corridor.

Should these projections hold, Wicked: For Good would not only secure a dominant opening but would also set a new all-time record for the highest Thanksgiving box office debut. This performance is a significant indicator of the immense audience anticipation surrounding the conclusion of the Wicked saga.

Breaking Down the Potential Record

The Thanksgiving holiday frame, which runs from Wednesday through Sunday, is one of the most lucrative periods in the annual cinematic calendar. The current record for the five-day Thanksgiving opening has stood for over a decade, underscoring the scale of Wicked: For Good‘s potential achievement.

The Current Thanksgiving Benchmark

The existing record is held by Lionsgate’s 2013 blockbuster, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which earned $109.9 million over its five-day debut. Surpassing this figure by a margin of $5 million to $10 million would solidify Wicked: For Good as the new champion of the holiday box office.

This strong tracking suggests that the decision by Universal and director Jon M. Chu to split the beloved Broadway musical into two separate films—Wicked (Part 1, debuting November 26, 2024) and Wicked: For Good (Part 2, debuting November 26, 2025) — is being validated by audience demand.

Note: While Frozen II holds the record for the highest overall gross during the Thanksgiving 5-day period, Catching Fire holds the record for the highest opening during that specific frame.

The Financial Imperative and Production Context

The impressive box office tracking is critical given the massive investment Universal has made in the franchise. The two films, which were shot back-to-back, carry a combined production budget estimated to be around $350 million before marketing costs. This high expenditure necessitates a blockbuster performance from both parts to achieve profitability.

Wicked: For Good is expected to benefit significantly from the success and audience goodwill generated by the first film, Wicked, which will have debuted exactly one year earlier. The two-part structure allows the filmmakers to fully explore the source material and build anticipation for the grand finale.

Key Creative Forces Driving Anticipation

The success hinges not only on the musical’s legacy but also on the star power and creative team assembled:

• Director: Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians, In the Heights)
• Elphaba: Tony-winner Cynthia Erivo, playing the future Wicked Witch of the West.
• Glinda: Pop superstar Ariana Grande, playing the future Good Witch.
• Source Material: Stephen Schwartz and Winnie Holzman, adapting the beloved 2003 Broadway musical.

Why the Wicked Adaptation Resonates

The original Wicked musical, which explores the untold story of the Witches of Oz, has been a cultural touchstone for over two decades. Its themes of friendship, prejudice, and political manipulation resonate deeply with modern audiences. This built-in fanbase, combined with the star power of Erivo and Grande, creates a powerful synergy for the film adaptation.

Universal is strategically positioning Wicked: For Good to dominate the late 2025 holiday season, capitalizing on both the family audience drawn to the Thanksgiving frame and the dedicated musical theater fans eager for the cinematic spectacle.

The tracking figures suggest that the audience is viewing the two films as a cohesive, must-see event, with the sequel poised to capitalize on the momentum established by the first part.

Key Takeaways for the Industry

This early tracking for Wicked: For Good sends several clear signals to the film industry:

• The Power of IP: Beloved, established intellectual property (IP) remains the most reliable driver of massive opening weekends, especially when paired with high production value.
• Musical Adaptation Viability: The success validates the continued viability of adapting major Broadway hits into large-scale cinematic events, despite the high costs.
• Holiday Corridor Dominance: The Thanksgiving window is confirmed as a premium release date, capable of supporting $100M+ openings for the right film.
• Sequel Momentum: If Part 1 performs well in 2024, Part 2 is positioned for a significant box office bump, demonstrating the effectiveness of the split-film strategy for epic narratives.

What’s Next

All eyes will now turn to the performance of the first film, Wicked, when it opens in November 2024. A strong performance from Part 1 will likely push the tracking estimates for Wicked: For Good even higher. Universal will continue its marketing campaign throughout 2025, leveraging the star power and the spectacular visuals promised by director Jon M. Chu to ensure the sequel meets, or exceeds, its record-breaking projections on November 26, 2025.