Setting the Stage: Bye Weeks and Key Absences
Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season presents a significant challenge for fantasy managers, demanding careful planning and expert analysis to navigate the inevitable gaps in starting lineups. This week, four major teams—the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, and Baltimore Ravens—are on bye. The absence of key players like Justin Jefferson, Lamar Jackson, Jonathan Taylor, and Rhamondre Stevenson forces managers to rely heavily on depth and favorable matchups.
This blueprint provides the definitive positional rankings and strategic context necessary to make informed decisions and secure a victory. Our analysis focuses on player volume, defensive vulnerabilities, and game script predictions to identify both high-floor starters and high-upside streamers.
Quarterback Strategy: Elite Matchups and Streamers
The top tier remains relatively stable, anchored by quarterbacks with high rushing floors or elite passing volume. However, the loss of Lamar Jackson (Ravens) means managers must find a viable replacement.
Top 12 QB Rankings (Standard/PPR)
| Rank | Player | Team | Opponent | Key Analysis Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | High-octane offense, favorable divisional matchup. |
| 2 | Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | Despite a tough defense, rushing upside provides an elite floor. |
| 3 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | NYG | Excellent matchup against a struggling Giants secondary; high passing volume expected. |
| 4 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | Rushing production keeps him matchup-proof, even in a divisional battle. |
| 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | WAS | Prime bounce-back spot against one of the league’s weakest pass defenses. |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | Must rely on passing volume in a high-scoring NFC East clash. |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | GB | Solid floor, facing a middle-of-the-road defense. |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | GB | Volume passer, high ceiling if the game turns into a shootout. |
| 9 | Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | Reliable production against a porous Cardinals defense. |
| 10 | Derek Carr | NO | CHI | Safe floor, but limited ceiling due to conservative play-calling. |
| 11 | Russell Wilson | DEN | KC | Forced to throw heavily to keep up with the Chiefs. |
| 12 | Sam Howell | WAS | MIA | High turnover risk, but immense passing volume makes him a viable streamer. |
Strategic Insight: The Stroud and Tagovailoa Upside
C.J. Stroud is ranked highly this week not just for his talent, but for the defensive metrics of his opponent. The Giants have struggled significantly against vertical passing attacks, positioning Stroud for a potential top-three finish. Similarly, Tua Tagovailoa has a perfect opportunity against the Commanders to re-establish his connection with his elite receiving corps after a few down weeks. Managers should treat both as high-end QB1s.
Running Back Decisions: Volume Over Everything
Running back scarcity is heightened by the bye weeks, making volume and goal-line opportunities paramount. We prioritize backs who receive significant target share, especially in PPR formats, as this raises their weekly floor.
Top 24 RB Rankings (PPR Format)
| Rank | Player | Team | Opponent | Key Analysis Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | LAR | Matchup proof, guaranteed 20+ touches and elite receiving work. |
| 2 | Derrick Henry | TEN | LAC | Expecting heavy workload and goal-line usage against a vulnerable run defense. |
| 3 | Breece Hall | NYJ | BUF | Volume is king; even against the Bills, his usage guarantees RB1 status. |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara | NO | CHI | Elite receiving floor makes him a must-start in all formats. |
| 5 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | HOU | High usage rate, regardless of the Giants’ offensive struggles. |
| 6 | Tony Pollard | DAL | PHI | High ceiling in a game expected to be fast-paced and high-scoring. |
| 7 | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | GB | Consistent volume and breakaway speed; solid RB1 floor. |
| 8 | D’Andre Swift | PHI | DAL | High touchdown equity and strong involvement in the passing game. |
| 9 | Joe Mixon | CIN | MIA | Workhorse back with a solid matchup, though efficiency can be volatile. |
| 10 | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | ARI | High ceiling against the Cardinals, but slight concern over recent usage dip. |
Mid-Tier RB Considerations
Managers needing a replacement for a bye-week player should look closely at the usage trends of mid-tier options. Gus Edwards (RB, Chargers) could see increased goal-line work if his team establishes an early lead. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams (RB, Broncos) is a high-risk, high-reward play. While his usage is solid, facing the Chiefs means the game script could quickly turn negative, limiting his running opportunities in favor of passing downs.
“When evaluating running backs in a tough bye week, look past the opponent’s overall ranking. Focus on the back’s guaranteed touches and, crucially, their target share. A back getting five receptions is often safer than one relying solely on rushing yards.”
Wide receiver rankings are heavily influenced by quarterback play and defensive backfield strength. With Justin Jefferson (Vikings) out, the top spot is contested between two speedsters.
Top 15 WR Rankings (PPR Format)
| Rank | Player | Team | Opponent | Key Analysis Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WAS | Elite speed, facing a defense that allows huge plays. |
| 2 | A.J. Brown | PHI | DAL | High target volume and touchdown upside in a key divisional game. |
| 3 | Puka Nacua | LAR | GB | Continues to command massive target share; WR1 regardless of matchup. |
| 4 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | NYJ | Tough matchup, but his target volume is too high to fade. |
| 5 | Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | MIA | High ceiling, but potential for heavy coverage from Miami’s secondary. |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | LAC | Consistent slot production and high floor in PPR. |
| 7 | Keenan Allen | LAC | NYJ | High volume receiver, excellent floor, especially if the game is close. |
| 8 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | DAL | Target share has stabilized; strong WR2 with WR1 upside. |
| 9 | Calvin Ridley | JAX | GB | Deep threat potential against a vulnerable secondary. |
| 10 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | ARI | High ceiling against the Cardinals, but remains touchdown-dependent. |
The DeVonta Smith Opportunity
DeVonta Smith has seen his target share increase significantly over the last three weeks, establishing himself as a reliable high-end WR2. In the expected shootout against the Cowboys, he offers immense upside, making him a strong start over many lower-tier WR1s who face difficult matchups.
Deep Sleeper: Joshua Palmer (WR, Chargers)
If you are desperate for a bye-week replacement, Joshua Palmer offers a strong floor due to consistent targets and a favorable matchup against the Jets. He is a reliable flex option who benefits from the Chargers’ high passing rate.
Tight End Tiering: The Kelce Effect and Beyond
Tight end remains the most volatile position outside of the elite tier. Travis Kelce (Chiefs) is the only true set-it-and-forget-it option this week.
Top 12 TE Rankings
| Rank | Player | Team | Opponent | Key Analysis Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | KC | DEN | Matchup proof, elite target volume, and touchdown equity. |
| 2 | George Kittle | SF | LAR | High ceiling due to blocking role and red-zone targets. |
| 3 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | DAL | Reliable target in a high-scoring game; strong floor. |
| 4 | Darren Waller | NYG | HOU | Benefits from the Giants’ lack of receiving options; high target volume. |
| 5 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | NYJ | Usage has increased dramatically; solid streaming option. |
| 6 | Evan Engram | JAX | GB | Consistent target volume, but low touchdown upside. |
| 7 | Taysom Hill | NO | CHI | Volatile, but his rushing and receiving usage provides a massive ceiling. |
| 8 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TEN | High snap count and red-zone usage; good bye-week fill-in. |
Streaming Candidate: Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid has solidified his role as a primary receiving option in the Bills’ offense. While the Jets defense is tough, Kincaid’s short-to-intermediate route running makes him a safe bet for receptions, offering a strong floor for managers needing a Week 9 replacement.
Key Takeaways for Week 9
Navigating the Week 9 bye weeks requires prioritizing volume and exploiting defensive weaknesses. Here are the essential strategic points for setting your winning lineup:
- Prioritize Matchups at QB: If you lost Lamar Jackson, target C.J. Stroud or Tua Tagovailoa for their favorable matchups against struggling secondaries.
- RB Volume is Non-Negotiable: Do not overthink the top running backs like Breece Hall or Derrick Henry; their guaranteed workload outweighs tough defensive matchups.
- Watch the Target Share: The increased usage of DeVonta Smith and Puka Nacua makes them elite WR starts, regardless of their team’s overall offensive performance.
- Tight End Streamer: Dalton Kincaid offers the best combination of floor and ceiling among the non-elite tight ends this week, making him a primary target for managers utilizing the waiver wire.
- Avoid Over-Benchmarking: Don’t bench a player with a guaranteed role (like Keenan Allen) for a volatile player with a slightly better matchup. Consistency wins in bye weeks.
Conclusion
Week 9 is defined by managing absences, not chasing outliers. The most successful fantasy managers will adhere to the blueprint, trusting the players who command high volume in their respective offenses, particularly those facing defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league against their position. By focusing on the underlying metrics—target share, red-zone opportunities, and defensive vulnerabilities—you can confidently set your lineup and capitalize on the challenges presented by the 2025 mid-season grind.
Original author: Hayden Winks
Originally published: October 30, 2025
Editorial note: Our team reviewed and enhanced this coverage with AI-assisted tools and human editing to add helpful context while preserving verified facts and quotations from the original source.
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