As the 2025 NFL season hits the critical Week 9 mark, fantasy football managers face increasingly complex lineup decisions. With bye weeks thinning the ranks and mid-season injuries creating chaos, the difference between a win and a loss often comes down to correctly identifying the high-floor options and the high-ceiling gambles among the league’s most uncertain players.
Drawing on advanced metrics, PFF grading, and deep matchup analysis, this guide cuts through the noise to provide definitive start, sit, and flex recommendations for the players causing the most anxiety in fantasy leagues this week. Our focus is on the borderline calls—the players you can’t afford to get wrong.
Quarterback Decisions: Balancing Floor and Ceiling
Quarterback is often the easiest position to manage, but Week 9 introduces several high-variance options. The key this week is prioritizing quarterbacks facing defenses with high implied point totals against them, even if the QB himself has been inconsistent.
Start ‘Em: High-Ceiling Matchups
| Player | Team | Week 9 Opponent | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | Titans | Cardinals | Levis faces an Arizona Cardinals defense that consistently ranks near the bottom in passing DVOA and has surrendered the most fantasy points to QBs over the last four weeks. While his floor is low, the implied total for this game suggests a shootout. Start Levis as a high-upside streamer. |
| Russell Wilson | Steelers | Commanders | Wilson has shown flashes of his vintage form, and the Commanders secondary remains exploitable. This is a favorable spot for a multi-touchdown performance, especially if the Steelers lean on the passing game early. |
Sit ‘Em: Matchup Regression Concerns
Geno Smith (Seahawks): Despite his volume, Smith faces a daunting task against the Dallas Cowboys defense. Dallas’s pass rush is elite, leading the league in pressure rate, which directly correlates with lower PFF passing grades. Smith’s efficiency drops significantly under duress. Unless you are in a Superflex league, look for a safer option.
Derek Carr (Saints): Carr’s production has been capped by a conservative offensive scheme. Facing the Carolina Panthers, who boast a surprisingly stout secondary and a strong defensive front, Carr’s ceiling is limited to low-end QB2 numbers. His lack of rushing upside makes him a risky play in a low-scoring divisional contest.
Running Back Decisions: Volume, Efficiency, and Goal-Line Looks
Running back decisions hinge on two factors this week: guaranteed volume (snap share above 65%) and the likelihood of goal-line carries. Efficiency is secondary when volume is secure.
Start ‘Em: Volume and Opportunity
D’Onta Foreman (Bears): Foreman has solidified his role as the primary goal-line back for the Bears, and the team’s implied total against the Saints is favorable. While he may not see 20 carries, his near-exclusive usage inside the 5-yard line makes him a strong RB2/Flex play, particularly in standard scoring formats. PFF data shows his run-blocking grades have been excellent, maximizing his limited touches.
Rachaad White (Buccaneers): White’s value is locked in due to his role in the passing game. Even against a tough Houston Texans front, White’s target share (averaging 5.5 targets per game) provides a safe floor in PPR leagues. He is essentially an RB/WR hybrid who benefits from negative game script.
Sit ‘Em: Efficiency and Committee Woes
Javonte Williams (Broncos): Williams continues to struggle with efficiency, posting one of the lowest PFF rushing grades among starting backs. While the volume is there, the matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs defense, which is excellent at limiting explosive runs, suggests a low-yardage day. He is a high-end Flex at best, but the risk of a sub-50 yard performance is too high.
Khalil Herbert (Bears): While Foreman is a Start, Herbert is a definitive Sit. His return from injury places him squarely in a committee, and he has lost the valuable goal-line work to Foreman. Until his snap share and red-zone usage stabilize, Herbert is best left on the bench.
Wide receiver analysis must focus on the specific cornerback matchup and the player’s consistent target share within their offense. Volume trumps all, but a shadow coverage situation can neutralize even the best receivers.
Start ‘Em: Favorable Matchups and High Volume
- Christian Kirk (Jaguars): Kirk is the definition of a high-floor PPR asset. He operates primarily from the slot, avoiding the opponent’s top perimeter cornerbacks. Against the New York Jets, who have a strong perimeter defense but are vulnerable inside, Kirk is set up for double-digit targets and a safe WR2 performance.
- Courtland Sutton (Broncos): Sutton is the clear alpha receiver in Denver, commanding a high percentage of the team’s air yards. He faces a Chiefs defense that, while strong overall, can be beaten by physical outside receivers. Sutton’s red-zone usage makes him a strong candidate for a touchdown.
- George Pickens (Steelers): This is a boom-or-bust recommendation. Pickens faces a Commanders secondary that has given up several long touchdowns this season. If you need a massive ceiling to overcome a deficit, Pickens is the play. His PFF receiving grade on deep targets is elite, making him dangerous against weaker coverage.
Marquise Brown (Cardinals): Brown is often reliant on deep targets, but he is projected to face shadow coverage from a top cornerback this week. Coupled with the Cardinals’ low offensive efficiency, his ceiling is severely capped. He is a desperation Flex only.
Tyler Lockett (Seahawks): Lockett’s production is inherently tied to the overall success of the Seahawks’ passing game, which, as noted, faces a brutal matchup against the Cowboys. While he is a reliable veteran, the risk of low volume and high pressure makes him a risky WR3 this week.
Tight End Decisions: Streaming and Reliability
Tight end remains the most volatile position. In Week 9, managers should prioritize tight ends who have a defined role as the second or third target in their respective offenses, especially those playing in games with high projected scoring.
Start ‘Em: Consistent Targets
Dalton Schultz (Texans): Schultz has emerged as a reliable security blanket for the Texans’ young quarterback. His target share is consistent, and he runs routes on nearly 80% of dropbacks. Against the Buccaneers, who have struggled to cover tight ends in the middle of the field, Schultz is a solid TE1 play with a high floor.
Gerald Everett (Chargers): Everett is a viable streamer this week, benefiting from the Chargers’ high-volume passing attack. While his usage can fluctuate, the matchup against the Jets is favorable, particularly if the game script forces the Chargers to rely on short, quick passes to counter the Jets’ pass rush.
Sit ‘Em: Touchdown Dependency
Taysom Hill (Saints): Hill’s fantasy value is entirely dependent on rushing touchdowns and random usage. While he offers a massive ceiling if he scores twice, his floor is zero points. Relying on him is a high-risk strategy best avoided unless you have no other options. The consistency offered by players like Schultz is far more valuable at this stage of the season.
Noah Fant (Seahawks): Fant faces the same oppressive matchup as the rest of the Seahawks’ passing game (Dallas). Furthermore, his target share is often split with other tight ends, making his volume too low to trust in a difficult environment.
PFF Week 9 Lineup Confidence Rankings
Based on PFF’s proprietary grading and matchup analysis, here is a quick reference guide for the most debated players this week, ranked by confidence level (1 being the highest confidence to start).
- Christian Kirk (JAX, WR): High floor, favorable slot matchup.
- D’Onta Foreman (CHI, RB): Goal-line volume secured.
- Dalton Schultz (HOU, TE): Consistent target share.
- Will Levis (TEN, QB): High-ceiling streamer in a potential shootout.
- Russell Wilson (PIT, QB): Favorable secondary matchup.
- George Pickens (PIT, WR): Boom-or-bust WR3/Flex.
- Javonte Williams (DEN, RB): Volume is present, but efficiency and matchup are poor.
- Geno Smith (SEA, QB): Elite pass rush matchup is too risky.
Key Takeaways for Week 9 Lineups
Fantasy success in Week 9 hinges on exploiting favorable secondary matchups and prioritizing guaranteed volume over efficiency, especially at the running back position. The expert consensus leans toward taking the high-ceiling shot at quarterback this week, given the tough matchups facing several established veterans.
- Prioritize Slot Matchups: Wide receivers operating primarily from the slot, like Christian Kirk, are safer plays as they often avoid the opponent’s top cornerbacks.
- Trust the Red Zone Role: Running backs like D’Onta Foreman who have secured goal-line work are essential starts, regardless of overall yardage projection.
- Avoid Elite Pass Rushes: Quarterbacks facing defenses with top-tier pressure rates (e.g., Geno Smith vs. Dallas) should be benched in favor of high-upside streamers.
- Target Weak Secondaries: Look for quarterbacks and wide receivers playing against defenses that rank poorly in pass coverage DVOA, such as the Cardinals and Commanders.
Conclusion: Making the Final Call
This week requires a calculated approach. While it is tempting to stick with established names like Geno Smith or Javonte Williams, the data strongly suggests pivoting to players with better situational advantages, such as Will Levis and D’Onta Foreman. Remember that fantasy football is about maximizing opportunities, and Week 9 offers clear opportunities for those willing to embrace the matchup analysis provided by PFF’s expert grading. Trust the volume, exploit the secondary weaknesses, and secure your spot in the playoff race.
Original author: Nathan Jahnke
Originally published: October 30, 2025
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