Delayed September CPI Report Forecasts Fastest Price Growth in Months
The highly anticipated, and belatedly released, September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release this Friday, offering a crucial, final look at third-quarter inflation trends. Economists widely anticipate the data will confirm a significant acceleration in price growth, marking the fastest monthly increase seen in several months.
This delay in the official government release—often attributed to administrative hurdles or disruptions like a government funding lapse—has kept financial markets and millions of Social Security recipients in suspense. The September figures are particularly critical because they represent the final data point used to calculate the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits.
The Consensus: What Economists Expect from the September Data
Market analysts and major financial institutions are bracing for a sobering report, suggesting that persistent strength in sectors like energy and housing continued to push costs higher through the end of Q3 2025. The consensus forecast points toward a substantial rise in both the headline CPI and the Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.
Key Inflation Metrics Forecasted
While the specific numbers are withheld until the official release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the general expectation is that the headline CPI will show a month-over-month increase that significantly exceeds recent trends. This acceleration is largely driven by rising energy costs, particularly gasoline, and stubbornly high shelter inflation.
“The September data is expected to solidify the narrative that the ‘last mile’ of inflation reduction remains the hardest. We anticipate strong readings in both headline and core metrics, putting renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its restrictive stance,” noted a leading economist in a recent research brief.
Core CPI, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors as a better indicator of underlying demand and long-term inflation trends, is also expected to show continued stickiness, likely remaining above the Fed’s long-term 2% target on an annualized basis.
The Critical Role of September CPI in the 2026 COLA
The most immediate and tangible impact of the September CPI report will be on the pocketbooks of over 70 million Americans who receive Social Security benefits. The data is the final piece required to calculate the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA).
How the COLA is Determined
The Social Security Administration (SSA) uses a specific index, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), rather than the broader CPI-U (Urban Consumers). The COLA calculation is based on the average CPI-W readings from the third quarter (July, August, and September) of the current year, compared to the average CPI-W from the third quarter of the previous year.
- July CPI-W: Already released, providing the first data point.
- August CPI-W: Already released, confirming upward pressure.
- September CPI-W: The final, decisive data point released this Friday.
If the September CPI-W reading is high, as expected, it will push the Q3 average higher, resulting in a larger COLA increase for beneficiaries starting in January 2026. Conversely, a lower-than-expected reading would temper the adjustment.
Anticipated 2026 COLA
Based on the strong inflation readings seen in July and August 2025, analysts have already projected a substantial COLA for 2026, though likely lower than the historic increases seen immediately following the post-pandemic surge. The September data will confirm the final percentage, providing financial certainty to retirees and disabled workers.
Implications for Federal Reserve Policy in 2025
Beyond the COLA, the September CPI data holds significant weight for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions throughout the remainder of 2025. The Fed’s primary goal is to bring inflation back to its 2% target without triggering a severe economic downturn.
The Fed’s Dilemma
If the September report confirms that inflation is accelerating or remaining stubbornly high, it complicates the Fed’s path toward potential rate cuts. High inflation data suggests that current interest rates may not be restrictive enough, increasing the likelihood of the following scenarios:
- Maintaining the Status Quo: The Fed will likely hold the federal funds rate at its current elevated level for longer than previously anticipated, delaying any potential rate cuts into 2026.
- Hawkish Rhetoric: Fed officials may adopt a more aggressive tone, signaling a willingness to raise rates further if necessary to curb persistent price pressures.
- Market Volatility: Bond yields and equity markets often react negatively to strong inflation reports, fearing prolonged high borrowing costs.
Conversely, a surprisingly weak September report could provide the Fed with the necessary evidence to consider easing monetary policy, potentially opening the door for rate cuts later in the year.
Key Takeaways from the Delayed Report
This Friday’s delayed September CPI report is crucial for understanding the current economic climate and future financial adjustments:
- Final COLA Calculation: The September CPI-W reading is the last input needed to determine the 2026 Social Security COLA.
- Inflation Acceleration: Economists forecast the CPI will show the fastest month-over-month price growth in several months, driven largely by energy and shelter costs.
- Fed Pressure: Strong inflation data increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates well into 2026.
- Core Concerns: Persistent strength in the Core CPI suggests that underlying inflationary pressures remain entrenched in the economy.
The delayed release of the September CPI data underscores the ongoing challenges facing policymakers and consumers alike. If the forecasts hold true, the report will confirm that the fight against inflation is far from over, necessitating continued vigilance from the Federal Reserve and potentially leading to a substantial, though necessary, increase in Social Security benefits for 2026. For consumers, the data serves as a reminder that high costs of living, particularly for essentials like housing and energy, continue to erode purchasing power despite broader economic stability.
What’s Next
Following the official release of the September CPI report this Friday, attention will immediately shift to the Social Security Administration, which is expected to formally announce the 2026 COLA percentage shortly thereafter. Simultaneously, financial markets will analyze the data for its impact on the Fed’s next policy meeting, where officials will decide whether the current restrictive stance is sufficient to guide inflation back to target.
Original author: Aimee Picchi
Originally published: October 23, 2025
Editorial note: Our team reviewed and enhanced this coverage with AI-assisted tools and human editing to add helpful context while preserving verified facts and quotations from the original source.
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